Around the World in 36 Hours: An Appraisal of Donald Trump’s Visit to India

Originally published in the Foreign Affairs Review on March 14, 2020

When U.S. President Donald Trump landed in the western Indian city of Ahmedabad on February 24, he was greeted by nearly 100,000 people, donning signs and effigies adorned with the phrase “Namaste Trump.” Save for the setting and size, this could have been yet another one of Trump’s campaign rallies. Instead, however, Trump had different intentions: he said he had come all the way from Washington for 36 hours to forge “an incredible trade deal” and increase defense cooperation. Despite his trip’s short length, he had a long wish list that he wanted to get through.

First and foremost was closing a trade deal that has been months in the making. Indeed, Trump has good reasons to aim for this: namely a domestic political victory back in the United States as well as increasing the relatively meager $160 billion in bilateral trade between the two countries. However, there is little optimism that his visit will secure a deal, chiefly around Trump’s termination of a tariff system known as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) which prioritizes goods from least developed countries. Even if this deal does not ultimately succeed, there have been tangible developments on the business front as a result of this visit. For example, India’s largest gas importer – Petronet LNG – announced in early February that it would sign a $2.5 billion deal with U.S. liquid natural gas developer Tellurian Inc. during Trump’s visit. These types of deals are a start in that they not only deepen relationships between Indian and U.S. companies, but in that they also demonstrates to the political establishment in both countries the opportunity for closer economic relations between the two.

Second, the U.S. has begun to see India as a valuable ally – or at the very least partner – in an Asian political landscape characterized by a rising China and growing hostility towards the U.S. However, India has long held to a foreign policy of non-alignment and has resisted close relationships with great powers. Rather, it has pursued strategic partnerships that are largely transactional. Indeed, under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s guidance, India’s arms exporters have increased substantially and the country is well on its way to being a global economic player. Despite Trump’s visit and seemingly close personal relationship with Modi, India is unlikely to be enticed pursue any substantial commitments with the U.S. Rather, Trump should hope for a strong India which will serve to counteract China rather than a pseudo satellite state which will push U.S. policy in the region.

Yet, optimism remains when looking towards future strategic relations between these states. Defense cooperation between the U.S. and India has grown over recent years under the Trump administration and the hyper-nationalist policies of Modi. One of the key factors that enabled this relationship to bloom has been U.S’s bullishness in Asia and designs for a “free Indo-Pacific.” Ashley J. Tellis observes that India would have been hard pressed to obtain the weapon systems it has from the U.S. in recent years had there been a “U.S. administration more fearful of provoking Pakistan or irritating China.” Trump’s visit to India and his enthusiastic relationship with Modi certainly shows his positive impression and friendly intentions. Many see the defense sector as key to India’s ability to rise to a great power in Asia and counter China. It is also a place for common ground between India and the U.S. and can form a solid – and critically, long-lasting – foundation for continued cooperation.

There is also a domestic political angle involved with the trip for both Modi and Trump. In September 2019, Modi was greeted by a 50,000 strong “Howdy Modi” rally in Austin, Texas that was attended mostly by Indian-Americans. This brought to the fore the domestic political power of Indian Americans in the U.S. and the fact that Trump’s visit to India would have not only international but domestic ramifications and perhaps motivations. The Indian foreign policy establishment is unlikely to change its tune around close relations with the U.S., likely preferring increased economic ties with the U.S. but steering clear of any strategic or ideological commitments. For Modi, closer business ties and especially commitments from U.S. companies to establish operations in India is a major motivator. Indeed, for years, he has championed his “Make in India” program which originally was focused on arms developing but expanded to encourage manufacturing development and diversification of the Indian economy. However, “Make in India” has largely failed to take off due to government bureaucracy and competition with China. To Modi, Trump represents a sea change that may bring more favorable winds to the sail of the Indian economy.

Taken as a whole, Trump’s visit to India was perhaps more form than substance; there was the obligatory visit to the Taj Mahal and press conferences with the Prime Minister. While there is still time for the trip to yield benefits, it is likely that the takeaway will be that more needs to be done, perhaps behind closed doors. This is not to say that the entire trip was a write-off, but perhaps its biggest contribution has been to show that there is potential for stronger ties but that expectations on both sides need to adapt.